Under Review - Opposition to Government and Back. The Shifting Immigration Discourse of Illiberal Parties in Europe

In the recent decades, illiberal far-right parties have seen electoral success, reshaped European politics, challenged established norms, and accelerated shifts in political discourse. Thought to be isolated by a cordon sanitaire, these parties are increasingly normalized, gaining footholds in parliamentary and governmental roles – from coalition participation in Austria to majority rule in Hungary. As illiberal far-right parties gain access to power, a pressing question arises; how does their parliamentary and governmental participation influence both their discourse and that of mainstream parties? While we know that far-right parliamentary entry influences mainstream parties’ policy adaptations and strategic positioning, less is known about their systematic effects across countries or how governing responsibilities affect their discourse. Theories of issue competition and spatial dynamics suggest that parties adjust their stances to maintain voter support and electoral competitiveness. However, case studies have suggested diverging results. Leveraging a novel liberal-illiberal scale based on a combination of word embeddings and dictionaries, this study examines how far-right participation in parliaments and governments affects both their own immigration discourse – a key far-right issue – and that of mainstream parties by analyzing the interaction between 67 parties in eight European countries (Austria, Czechia, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Hungary, Italy, and Poland) over the last 15 years. Our findings show that mainstream parties, especially conservative ones, follow the shifts in the immigration discourse of far-right parties. Furthermore, we find that far-right parties minimally moderate their anti-immigration discourse when entering government. These findings not only contribute to our understanding of party competition dynamics but also illuminates the broader implications of illiberal party normalization for democratic stability and coalition strategies in European politics.